Chinese Innovation

China's Technology Future and What It Means for Silicon Valley

中国经济从低端制造业转向生产越来越复杂的商品和服务,这引发了一个意义深远的问题:中国有创新能力吗? 因为创新被广泛认为是技术竞争力的关键, 这个问题的答案对硅谷和其他美国科技公司具有重要意义. 它的重要性不仅体现在贸易上,也体现在投资上, as US companies continue to invest in China, 中国科技公司也越来越多地在湾区和加州投资.

创新是指通过创造或改进产品或商业服务而产生新的经济价值的能力. It can take many forms. 一端是变革性创新——从根本上改变一个市场或一个行业的东西. Often, but not always, it is based on scientific research. 但创新也可以是渐进的——对现有产品或服务进行修改或增强,以改善其市场地位并增加其经济价值.

Acknowledgments

This report was prepared by Sean Randolph, Senior Director at the Bay Area Council Economic Institute. Alice Bishop, Research Analyst at the Economic Institute, and Sebastian Hamirani, 加州州立理工大学圣路易斯奥比斯波分校的实习生, contributed to the research. hg8868皇冠下载要感谢这个项目的赞助者, whose support enabled its development: Lead Sponsors HSBC and Microsoft; and Supporting Sponsors Deloitte and Silicon Valley Bank. We also wish to thank the advisers for this report, who provided early guidance and reviewed its working draft, 还有许多提供信息和见解的贡献者. They are listed in the Appendix.

Understanding Chinese Innovation

中国已经远远超越了单纯复制西方产品或技术,现在在渐进式创新方面表现出色. It still lags the US, Europe, and Japan in transformational, science-based innovation, 但由于中国政府持续的政策重点和投资,以及巨大的国内市场提供的杠杆作用, transformational innovation can also be expected to advance.

Government investment in scientific research is growing, 中国专利的数量和质量以及中国作者在科学期刊上发表的文章也是如此. 在工程方面,中国仍在追赶,但质量也在提高. 它也可以投入大量的工程师来实现它的目标. 中国也吸引了大量来自美国和欧洲的海归, 谁在硅谷和其他公司和大学接受过培训,有经验,并把他们的知识带回家.

Advances are clear at the national level, in fields such as supercomputing, quantum communications, space, and robotics. In the private sector, advances can best be seen in mobile commerce, where China currently leads the world. 而推动中国商业成功的创新大多是渐进式的, 对人工智能(AI)的投资使它们越来越有可能. Outside of mobile commerce—in fields such as semiconductors, software, commercial aircraft, and life sciences—China’s advance is more uneven. 然而,即使在这些领域,持续的投资也可能带来改变.

Leading Regions Concentrate Innovation Assets

中国的创新资产——领先的私营企业以及公共和私营研究中心——主要(但不完全)集中在三个地区:深圳和珠江三角洲, Shanghai and the Yangtze River Delta, and Beijing. Companies headquartered in those regions—Huawei in ICT, Tencent and Alibaba in internet and e-commerce, DJI in drones, Broad Group in construction, Geely in automobiles, 摩拜单车在共享单车领域的创新体现在一系列行业中.

这些公司主导着中国市场,并正在寻求海外全球市场的扩张. 在中国市场开发的产品和服务在中国以外的市场并不总是能够很好地转移.

China also has an increasingly robust startup scene, with a rapidly growing number of incubators and accelerators. 许多项目是由省市政府赞助的,提供津贴或免租等福利. It is not clear, however, 它们的快速扩张是否反映了类似规模的创新, or whether it constitutes a bubble.

There is also growing private investment in startups, by large companies such as Tencent, Alibaba, and Baidu, and through an array of venture capital and private equity firms. Reflecting the scale of this activity, in 2016 China led Asia in the production of unicorns (companies with valuations of $1 billion or more) with 37; the country with the next largest number was India with 8. 互联网公司获得了中国一半以上的风投交易, and of China’s 46 unicorns in 2017, nearly half are backed by China’s largest internet companies.

然而,中国的创业支持生态系统仍在发展中. 风险投资者通常希望迅速将他们的投资货币化, 强化其投资组合公司追求短期收益而非转型飞跃的倾向(这是硅谷擅长的领域). 在产生和支持创业型企业的项目方面,大多数中国大学也落后于潮流.

Government Policies

To a degree that far exceeds other major economies, 中国的科技发展轨迹通过共产党制定的一系列产业政策与政府紧密相连, 谁的影响力超越了省级和地方政府,以及国有企业,还包括私营企业. 这直接通过嵌入的党代表以及鼓励私营企业与政府优先事项保持一致的激励和抑制措施来实现. The most important policies impacting technology and innovation are the 13th Five Year Plan; Made in China 2025; the National Medium- and Long-Term Program for the Development of Science and Technology 2006–2020; the National Innovation-Driven Development Strategy Outline; the National Security Law; the National Cybersecurity Strategy; and the Social Credit System.

In the aggregate, these policies promote national corporate champions, “自主创新”(中国技术的发展增加,减少对非中国技术的依赖), 以及向国内和进口数据系统“安全可控”的转变.“要求在华投资的外国公司向当地合作伙伴转让技术, 以及长城防火墙(限制在中国境内访问非中国互联网公司提供的信息), advance these laws and policies. 薄弱但不断改善的知识产权保护,加大了中外企业面临的挑战.

In the process of supporting domestic innovation and security, 这些政策也给中国科技公司带来了优势,让外国科技公司处于劣势. 但是,这种倾斜的竞争环境也会通过政府的过度干预和限制创新赖以繁荣的思想和信息的自由流动来抑制创新.

China and the Bay Area

中国与硅谷/旧金山湾区通过科技创新紧密相连, 通过对内投资,两国关系日益加强. 加州是中国对外技术投资在美国的主要目的地, most of which has been received in the last two years. The lion’s share of this is through acquisitions, 主要集中在硅谷的ICT(信息和通信技术), and spread across semiconductors, ICT equipment, and software. Investment in biotechnology is also significant. 这些投资主要来自私营企业,而不是国有企业. Government funds, however, are also used to fund acquisitions.

Leading Bay Area companies such as Uber, Lyft, Airbnb也从中国获得了大量资金注入, primarily through Chinese participation in funding rounds. Many startup and early-stage companies have also received funding. Typically, 这些小型企业的中国投资者在寻找尖端技术,以填补中国的竞争空白. 对于这些初创企业来说,中国的投资不仅带来了资本,还能让它们更好地进入中国市场. 这一活动得到了越来越多中国加速器的支持, corporate innovation centers, and venture funds that have opened in the region.

Looking to the Future

There is no question that China is innovative. This is evident in its leading private companies, which are among the best in the world in their fields. The question of innovation is complicated, however, by the role of China’s government which, to a degree unseen in market economies, directs resources, supports domestic technology companies, inhibits foreign ones, and mandates technology transfer. Under its policies, 中国经济中的每一个参与者——无论是公共的还是私营的——最终都与国家目标联系在一起. 对于那些希望进入中国不断增长的市场、但又不想冒险让自己的技术丢失或受损的美国科技公司来说,这为它们提供了复杂的选择. 它还引发了有关中国在美技术投资的长期影响的问题.

中国企业在利用中国市场规模方面展现出越来越强的实力, government support, foreign technology, and their own R&D to generate innovation-led growth. While most SOEs and smaller companies still lag, the best Chinese companies can be strong partners, as well as formidable competitors. As China’s already considerable innovative capacity grows, 这将给湾区和硅谷的公司带来挑战和机遇. Either way, 每个公司都需要一个中国战略或一个考虑到中国的全球战略. 只要条件合适,开放的大门对双方都有好处. 商业决策和政府政策将决定中国的技术轨迹是导致世界上最大的两个经济体之间的冲突增加,还是扩大伙伴关系.